The International Energy Security Risk Index in Sustainable Energy and Economy Transition Decision Making-A Reliability Analysis
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2020
Аутори
Podbregar, IztokSimić, Goran
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Radovanović, Mirjana
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Filipović, Sanja
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Maletić, Damjan
Sprajc, Polona
Чланак у часопису (Објављена верзија)
Метаподаци
Приказ свих података о документуАпстракт
The world economy and society are in a complex process of transition characterized by a high degree of uncertainty. Therefore, further development and management of the transition will largely depend on the quality of the decisions made and, accordingly, on the decision-making process itself. The main goal of this study is to analyze the reliability of International Energy Security Risk Index as a tool to support the process of energy and economy transition decision making, as closely related and highly interdependent phenomena. The index is composed of 29 aggregated variables (grouped into eight categories), and the research is conducted on a research sample of 25 countries over a period of 36 years. The reliability assessment is performed by using Multiple Regression Analysis. Multicollinearity test, plus Multicollinearity test with Variance Inflation Factors, is used for methodological verification. The test results indicate a high degree of unreliability of the Index, as is conclud...ed based on the observed errors in its methodological settings. These errors primarily relate to a high degree of multicollinearity in all 29 variables, whereby independent variables lose their independence and thus jeopardize reliability of the total Index. Out of the eight groups of variables, the fuel imports group is the only one that does not show big methodological errors. The paper presents a recommendation for the improvement of the observed Index (review of the role of individual variables found to be particularly methodologically indicative), as well as a recommendation for different distribution of weighting coefficients.
Кључне речи:
multiple regression analysis / multicollinearity test / multicollinearity test with variance inflation factors / international energy security risk index / energy and economy transition / decision makingИзвор:
Energies, 2020, 13, 14Издавач:
- MDPI, BASEL
Финансирање / пројекти:
- Нове информационе технологије за аналитичко одлучивање базиране на организацији експеримента и опсервацији и њихова примена у биолошким, економским и социолошким системима (RS-MESTD-Integrated and Interdisciplinary Research (IIR or III)-44007)
- Slovenian Research Agency [P5-0018]
- Erasmus+ Programme of the European Union
Институција/група
Fakultet zaštite životne sredineTY - JOUR AU - Podbregar, Iztok AU - Simić, Goran AU - Radovanović, Mirjana AU - Filipović, Sanja AU - Maletić, Damjan AU - Sprajc, Polona PY - 2020 UR - https://redun.educons.edu.rs/handle/123456789/408 AB - The world economy and society are in a complex process of transition characterized by a high degree of uncertainty. Therefore, further development and management of the transition will largely depend on the quality of the decisions made and, accordingly, on the decision-making process itself. The main goal of this study is to analyze the reliability of International Energy Security Risk Index as a tool to support the process of energy and economy transition decision making, as closely related and highly interdependent phenomena. The index is composed of 29 aggregated variables (grouped into eight categories), and the research is conducted on a research sample of 25 countries over a period of 36 years. The reliability assessment is performed by using Multiple Regression Analysis. Multicollinearity test, plus Multicollinearity test with Variance Inflation Factors, is used for methodological verification. The test results indicate a high degree of unreliability of the Index, as is concluded based on the observed errors in its methodological settings. These errors primarily relate to a high degree of multicollinearity in all 29 variables, whereby independent variables lose their independence and thus jeopardize reliability of the total Index. Out of the eight groups of variables, the fuel imports group is the only one that does not show big methodological errors. The paper presents a recommendation for the improvement of the observed Index (review of the role of individual variables found to be particularly methodologically indicative), as well as a recommendation for different distribution of weighting coefficients. PB - MDPI, BASEL T2 - Energies T1 - The International Energy Security Risk Index in Sustainable Energy and Economy Transition Decision Making-A Reliability Analysis IS - 14 VL - 13 DO - 10.3390/en13143691 UR - conv_1045 ER -
@article{ author = "Podbregar, Iztok and Simić, Goran and Radovanović, Mirjana and Filipović, Sanja and Maletić, Damjan and Sprajc, Polona", year = "2020", abstract = "The world economy and society are in a complex process of transition characterized by a high degree of uncertainty. Therefore, further development and management of the transition will largely depend on the quality of the decisions made and, accordingly, on the decision-making process itself. The main goal of this study is to analyze the reliability of International Energy Security Risk Index as a tool to support the process of energy and economy transition decision making, as closely related and highly interdependent phenomena. The index is composed of 29 aggregated variables (grouped into eight categories), and the research is conducted on a research sample of 25 countries over a period of 36 years. The reliability assessment is performed by using Multiple Regression Analysis. Multicollinearity test, plus Multicollinearity test with Variance Inflation Factors, is used for methodological verification. The test results indicate a high degree of unreliability of the Index, as is concluded based on the observed errors in its methodological settings. These errors primarily relate to a high degree of multicollinearity in all 29 variables, whereby independent variables lose their independence and thus jeopardize reliability of the total Index. Out of the eight groups of variables, the fuel imports group is the only one that does not show big methodological errors. The paper presents a recommendation for the improvement of the observed Index (review of the role of individual variables found to be particularly methodologically indicative), as well as a recommendation for different distribution of weighting coefficients.", publisher = "MDPI, BASEL", journal = "Energies", title = "The International Energy Security Risk Index in Sustainable Energy and Economy Transition Decision Making-A Reliability Analysis", number = "14", volume = "13", doi = "10.3390/en13143691", url = "conv_1045" }
Podbregar, I., Simić, G., Radovanović, M., Filipović, S., Maletić, D.,& Sprajc, P.. (2020). The International Energy Security Risk Index in Sustainable Energy and Economy Transition Decision Making-A Reliability Analysis. in Energies MDPI, BASEL., 13(14). https://doi.org/10.3390/en13143691 conv_1045
Podbregar I, Simić G, Radovanović M, Filipović S, Maletić D, Sprajc P. The International Energy Security Risk Index in Sustainable Energy and Economy Transition Decision Making-A Reliability Analysis. in Energies. 2020;13(14). doi:10.3390/en13143691 conv_1045 .
Podbregar, Iztok, Simić, Goran, Radovanović, Mirjana, Filipović, Sanja, Maletić, Damjan, Sprajc, Polona, "The International Energy Security Risk Index in Sustainable Energy and Economy Transition Decision Making-A Reliability Analysis" in Energies, 13, no. 14 (2020), https://doi.org/10.3390/en13143691 ., conv_1045 .